Yesterday, we updated our analysis and forecast on USDCAD and stated that the major move down is not complete:
“In this 4h chart, currently we have a clear a-b-c structure from the lows and prices have re-set all their oversold levels. Ideally, the upper-bound of the channel should hold and we expect USDCAD to move down for the last time during this period.” – USDCAD: It’s Not Over Yet!
We started short positions immediately when price touched the upper-bound of the channel (1.2940) with stop-loss at 1.2995.
USDCAD Daily Chart – April 19, 2016
In this daily chart, we see how prices respected the upper-bound of the channel in order to continue with the last move down to new lows, ideally at the lower-bound of the channel.
USDCAD 4H Chart – April 19, 2016
In USDCAD 4H chart, we confirm the a-b-c structure of the ED wave 4 and prices are not even near oversold levels. This red wave 5 must have 5-micro wave in order to complete. In the next chart, we will break down the advancement up-to-now.
USDCAD 1H Chart – April 19, 2016
As we see, there are only 3 clear waves since this move began. We have wave 3 near its ideal target at 162% extension level and expect prices to temporarily bounce back at the target box for wave 4.
Until that happens, we are taking some profits at 1.2750 from 1.2940 and looking to add to shorts at the target box.