Pre-Requisite Reading: ES-Mini: Careful Now!


Earlier this week, we wrote the above article stating that we expected a top around 2095-2110 levels and that:

“We believe that the level of danger now has increased and we are liquidating all long positions in ES-Mini and Market Stocks.”

According to our strategy, we think that the market has topped and has given its first signs. In order to have a high probability confirmation of a top, we need to see a 5-3 structure.

ES-Mini 1H Chart  – April 22, 2016

ES Mini 1H 3 - April 22, 2016

From this chart, we see that the market has moved deep and has broken the lower-bound of the channel. Also, there are 4 clear moves on the downside and if the green channel is respected, we know where to expect the 5th wave down.

If this happens, market has given us only 1 part of what we need to confirm the top. The second part is the red wave structure.

There is another form that this wave iv might take today (see chart below)

ES-Mini 1H Chart  – April 22, 2016

ES Mini 1H 2 - April 22, 2016

In this alternative view, we expect wave iv to complete at the 100% extension level (2090) and invalidation point would be 2097. If prices move back up above 2097 then buyers have regained control for another move higher (see chart below). Note: This scenario has a low rating of 3/10 of happening.

ES Mini 1H 4 - Bullish - April 22, 2016


“Another detail that should get attention is the crossing of Fibonacci Time Zones with the Speed Resistance, indicating that a trend reversal should be expected around 20th of April.” – SP 500 Index & ES Futures – What to Expect Now!

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