AAPL Weekly Outlook

AAPL Weekly Wave Count 14-03-2016

In this weekly chart, we observe that AAPL stock has completed its 4th cycle at $92 area or at the 76% extension level of A-B. Even though the target for the end of the blue wave (4) was around $82-$87 price area (red box), near 100% extension level, there are times that even the 76% extension turns to be the game-changer in ending the corrective waves.

This bounce from the low opens the upside target in the upper-bound of the channel at the blue wave (5) that might complete during this year. In the following chart, we observe a smaller degree move to determine how APPL stock price will follow through in the short-term

AAPL Daily Chart and Short-Term Outlook

AAPL Daily Wave Count 14-03-2016

In this chart, we see how perfectly blue wave (4) completed and its wave © with 5 micro waves. In order for us to have a confirmation of a bottom in place, we always need to see 5 micro waves up and 3 down to confirm a possible i-ii pair for the price to continue with the bullish outlook in the weekly chart.

AAPL has completed 4 micro waves from the bottom and it needs another wave up towards 38% retracement or above to complete wave i. We expect to see this structure to complete before FED announcements and a retracement (50-62%) down in a 3-way move is what the need to see for wave ii.It is important for the price not to retrace too deep, below $96.00 level because that will put into question this price structure and will open the case for another lower low.

Any long position at this moment will have limited upside potential and the best thing to do is to either start a small short position at $105.00 or wait for the retracement in wave ii and start a long-term position. If AAPL retraces and holds >$98.00 then the target for this year will be $150-$160. We need to see an impulsive move above 62% retracement to confirm this perspective.

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